Tianli Magnet Technology
2021-03-12
◆After the garbage is sorted, the right to recycle recyclable garbage and the right to dispose of kitchen waste will be changed; property management companies are more likely to obtain the right to recycle recyclable garbage, and the change in the right to dispose of food waste will have a great impact on the solid waste industry chain.（1) The most important feature of recyclable waste is that it can create additional benefits through resource utilization. For example, waste paper and waste plastic will have a market space of 100 billion yuan per year to reshape at the source. Property management companies rely on their fixed and labor costs to be diluted due to scale, and all-weather red line management advantages. After assuming more responsibility for waste classification management, they are expected to win the competition with scavengers, mobile vendors and sanitation companies and obtain renewable resources. The right to recycle garbage and enjoy the industrial chain interest rate difference. (2) After the separation of dry and wet, the kitchen waste has to form its own disposal chain, which currently has many constraints: the government needs to increase investment expenditures for food waste disposal; waste incineration companies also need to increase capital expenditures to improve furnace tolerance , Also need to face the changes brought about by the reduction of waste into the furnace. We believe that the implementation of dry and wet separation does not have to be particularly thorough (which has been confirmed by the latest Beijing garbage classification requirements), and the residents’ garbage charging system is already on the line to relieve financial pressure ("Solid Waste Pollution Prevention and Control Law (2020 Revision)) "Published).
◆The bargaining power of my country's solid waste industry chain will be transferred to the source and channels; in the future, property management companies may levy community waste classification management fees, and the domestic waste treatment fees collected by the government will help improve the income structure of the solid waste industry.We believe that the links that have direct access to charging rights or policy subsidy dividends have a better position in the industrial chain, and can also break the bottleneck of profit expansion (such as the US environmental sanitation company, China's waste incineration company); in the future, the solid waste industry The market expansion and bargaining power of the chain will be more inclined to the more urgent links of the phased demand. After the establishment of the garbage charging system, (1) the community garbage classification management has increased the workload of the property management company. After the improvement of the charging mechanism, according to our estimates, it can increase the income of the property company by 33.516 billion yuan (if calculated at a rate of 5%); ( 2) The domestic waste disposal fee, whether collected by the government in the name of other public utility charges or collected by the property management company, is aimed at reducing financial pressure, making up for a certain fiscal expenditure gap, and conducive to the income structure of the solid waste industry Perfect, according to our estimates, its scale is about 18.935 billion (collected at 5 yuan/household/month).
◆Investment Advice:
We believe that whether it is urban management or waste-free cities, there are already buds of platform-based development. At the same time, with the blessing of the digital economy, this trend will become faster and faster; and urban management and waste-free cities can also be achieved through "waste classification, The integration of "Sanitation" will cause important changes in the industry space and pattern. (1) Property management companies will fully enjoy the changes brought about by urban management and waste classification; (2) Waste incineration companies and renewable resource companies need to quickly enter the upstream, with a waste-free city as the core concept, and carry out platform expansion; (3) Sanitation companies need to work hard to open up new markets and expand the scope of services, and actively seek cooperation with all parties.◆risk warning:The policies and standards of the garbage charging system are lower than expected; the financial resources and efficiency of local governments are lower than expected; the industry structure changes, and some links are exposed to the risk of foreign entrants.
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Waste classification policy changes "rights": supporting facilities need to be followed up
The initial change caused by garbage classification is that under the compulsory policy, the residents have “separated dry and wet” the original mixed domestic garbage, and put “recyclable garbage” and “hazardous garbage” separately.
What is the "authority" of the solid waste industry chain? That is, the right to recycle, the right to transport, and the right to dispose of.
Most of the powers are granted by the government. For example, the sanitation company has the right to transport waste, and the waste incineration company or landfill has the right to handle waste.
After garbage sorting, the right to recycle part of the garbage at the source and the right to dispose of the end have actually undergone great changes. The two very important links are:
(1) Change in the power of recycling of recyclable garbage: The most important feature of recyclable garbage is that it can create additional revenue through resource utilization. For example, waste paper, waste plastic and scrap metal can form a revenue chain on their own, and the recycling of these garbage in the early stage is Disorderly
(2) Changes in the powers of the disposal of kitchen waste: After the separation of dry and wet, the kitchen waste must form its own disposal chain, which must be separated from the original mixed waste, resulting in a reduction in the original waste entering the furnace or entering the site, and the composition changes at the same time The impact on disposal facilities cannot be ignored.
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Why do we focus on analyzing recyclable garbage? On the one hand, the sources and channels of recyclable garbage are messy and difficult to manage. At the same time, many black market profit chains are derived. On the other hand, the market space for resource utilization of recyclable garbage is huge, and if a part of the profit returns to formal channels This will undoubtedly help reduce the government's financial pressure and increase the enthusiasm of participating enterprises.
The flow of recyclable garbage and the right to recycle
Traditional recycling and reuse methods of recyclable garbage in my country:First, scavengers or residents, property or cleaning personnel of related units sell the collected recyclable garbage to fixed or mobile vendors with transportation and storage capabilities; then, sell it to a sorting center or a distribution market for sorting, packing, and Physical processing such as impurity removal; finally, large-scale recycling companies conduct sub-purchasing and unified sales to various sorting centers and markets, and sell them to waste production companies.
Before garbage sorting, the right to recycle the recyclable garbage:
Recyclable garbage produced in residential communities-residents or scavengers: 1) After being put into the trash can, the scavengers pick it up; 2) Residents sell it to fixed or mobile vendors.
Recyclable garbage of commercial buildings, enterprises and government agencies-property or cleaning personnel: 1) standardized collection and treatment of properties; 2) building cleaning personnel to dispose of them by themselves.
For a long time, my country's recyclable waste recycling industry has been decentralized and irregular.
Source end: Scavengers and mobile vendors are mobile and flexible, without fixed costs, and low labor costs. Although they are disorderly, they also provide residents with a certain degree of convenience. Channel end: There are many small, scattered, and disorderly mobile vendors and non-committal vendors in the industry. Formal enterprises can reduce costs due to the inability to establish individual industrial and commercial tax procedures and do not issue formal bills; at the same time, they can purchase recyclable garbage from the upstream at relatively high prices through price wars, thereby triggering the "bad money driving out good money" phenomenon.
Under this industrial model, the recyclable waste recycling industry has the distinctive characteristics of "the downstream is concentrated and formal, and the upstream is scattered and chaotic." The source is mainly mobile scavengers, supplemented by mobile vendors: waste plastics and waste paper with high recycling value. A large amount of waste metal, scrap metal, etc. flow into the hands of scavengers, forming a chain of interests; scholar Pan Jieming estimates that scavengers in Beijing recycle more than 90% of household waste.
In fact, everyone has been thinking about what is the driving force that can effectively promote waste classification? 1) The improvement of residents’ awareness is a long-term process of civilization and progress; 2) Policy rewards and punishment measures and community management are being promoted in an orderly manner; 3) The improvement of garbage classification, transportation and disposal facilities is a necessary supporting work .
At present, the policy's reward and punishment measures have been launched, and another short- and medium-term effective measure is community management, and the main body of management is the property management company. On April 25, 2020, Beijing’s first high-level domestic waste classification and property management promotion conference emphasized: “Waste classification and property management work Garbage classification is included in daily management". In addition, we reviewed the community management through this new crown epidemic. The property management company has contributed to the community epidemic prevention mission very effectively. Therefore, we also have reason to believe that as long as the management is done, the garbage classification will not be as expected. So difficult.
Changes in recyclable garbage collection rights after garbage classification:
Residents’ recyclable garbage-the right to recycle will be gradually transferred to the property management company. Its advantages:
1) Through community management, scavengers and fixed and mobile vendors can be avoided to a certain extent;
2) Residents can sell recyclable garbage to property companies more conveniently, and even use digital economic means;
3) The property management company has its own base or storage space in the community, and can manage it all-weather;
4) It is difficult for foreign entrants such as sanitation companies to break the barriers: when entering the community, their fixed costs and labor costs will be greatly increased. This is the problem with the early-stage good community or the little yellow dog.
The recyclable garbage of commercial buildings, enterprises and government agencies will also be concentrated to the property management company: it is enough to strengthen management and increase responsibility, and the recyclable garbage that flows to the cleaners will also be unified to the building properties.
To sum up: the property management company will be a dark horse in the recyclable waste recycling system. The policy pushes the community/property management company to assume more responsibility for waste classification. At the same time, the community/property management company also has its own unique advantages, so After the responsibility for garbage classification is taken, you can better obtain the right to recycle the renewable garbage; after obtaining the right to recycle the recyclable garbage, you can further enjoy the industry chain interest rate difference. Next, we will further analyze and calculate the industrial chain and market space for the reuse of recyclable waste.